The Ockham Bugle - 22 April
Bumper issue: Some product management common sense. Netflix: problem? what problem? A TV recommendation. And great question: When was the first Monday? As always, feedback welcome.
PM talk: Naomi-isms
I recommend a pleasant half hour reading Naomi-isms a set of guidelines/ ways of working from Naomi Gleit, VP of Product at Meta.
This is refreshingly simple, practical and based on operating at scale. Don’t look for 25-step descriptions of a Discovery process here: but a focus on keeping things clear and simple; getting to the bottom of a problem; and structure around documentation and team roles.
It’s clearly articulated, common sense. Which really, is what product management should be.
Netflix: problem? what problem?
The longer term view - From Mark Ritson on LinkedIn
One of the standard MOs for journalists and other commentators is that an event can’t just be an event, it has to be a symbol of something bigger.
So when Netflix subscribers fall off, it can’t just be an uneventful hiccup, it has to signify something: normally something that you knew to be the case all along, and now you have some evidence for.
So what mega-trend has its finger on the trigger of those declining subs numbers?
Well before we go there, it’s worth taking a slightly longer look. I liked this post from Mark Ritson - and the graph he uses (see above). And even more so I really really liked this piece from Marketing Week about how so many trends have stayed the same despite Covid).
But, where’s the fun in that kind of intellectual rigour? Let’s assume this week’s news is a sign we’ve reached Peak something…but peak what, exactly? Here’s four suspects.
We have reached peak Netflix: or perhaps we’ve reached the end of this service where £15/$19 a month gives you - and anyone you want to share your password with - access to one of the most the heavily funded TV and movie libraries on the planet. So expect a crash back to broadcast reality: advertising; limited password sharing; and ‘right-sized’ content spend.
We have reached peak streaming services: Claiming there are too many streaming services isn’t new ; but perhaps what is new is that Apple TV+, Disney+ , and whatever emerges out of HBO Max + Paramount Plus are all going to sit alongside Netflix and Amazon as a set of large-scale global contenders for your wallet. And people are going to have to make choices. According to this data 20 - 30% of people in a whole load of countries with three or four SVOD subscriptions. It’s hardly surprising that with fuel and food costs rising people are going to take a look at these and ask if they can live with just one or two.. Which takes me to..
We have reached peak subscriptions: Subscription became the consumer business model of choice after all the ad money went to Facebook and Google (and now, also, Amazon and TikTok). Never mind just TV/ SVOD. We stump up subscriptions for printer ink; coffee; gaming; food; beer; make up; cloud storage; news; plus all those Amazon Subscribe and Save ‘bargains’. In the UK, Lloyds said subscription payments rose by 70% between Jan 2020 and March 2021. Individually these are all ‘good deals’; but collectively they’re like a massive leak in our monthly cash buckets. The first bit of personal advice being handed out on TV, in print, and on every personal finance podcast is ‘look at those subscriptions’. One solution: is a budgeting app…as long as you’re happy to subscribe to it.
We have reached peak ‘Too good to be true’ offers. This slightly builds out on point 1 - but have you noticed Uber getting more expensive? and staying at an Air BnB isn’t cheaper than a night in a reasonable hotel? or how a takeaway from Deliveroo is actually pretty pricey compared to cooking your own or a couple of ready meals from Tesco? (or even Waitrose). According to this logic, Netflix as we knew it is just one of many Too Good to be True offers that will fade away. [this idea shamelessly stolen from Erick Opeka]
There’s probably something in all of these arguments - for now. Short term - people have less cash and will be making trade offs that put any easily discretional spend at risk. Longer term Netflix is only going to feel more competitive pressure - and will have to recalibrate accordingly. And yes, I’m sure Uber is getting more expensive..
But…in the grand scheme of things: Netflix; SVOD and subscriptions for everything are all here to stay. And as soon as Uber gets too expensive; someone will come along and find a way to do it cheaper.
Worth watching..
Very happily binged my way through The Thief, His Wife and The Canoe this week. Eddie Marsan and Monica Dolan were great as John and Anne Darwin. If you don’t know the story: it starts with the Darwins faking John’s death by going out on a canoe; and then ends up with him secretly living in the house next door to Anne for five years before they try and resettle in Panama. Kind of mad, partly comic, but also tragic as they hid the truth from their sons and family.
Of course, once you’ve finished the drama you then have to watch the documentary which gives even more detail, and frankly makes it all even more unbelievable.
Interesting that the whole story has been dramatised before as ‘Canoe Man’ on BBC4 with Bernard Hill as John Darwin. But think it slightly sank without trace (no pun intended) without the full heft of ITV marketing machine behind it.
If you watched and enjoyed, this profile in Drama Quarterly is a good read.
Good news: the writer was Chris Laing, responsible for ITV’s excellent The Unforgotten - and that is coming back for a 5th series next year.
Because it involves a middle aged couple involved something criminal, it’s impossible not to draw comparisons with the utterly excellent Landscapers. Although, to be fair, that was really another step up in terms of both quality and darkness.
Also...Freeze the Fear with Wim Hof
Quite the strangest celebrity show yet. Starts with Lee Mack in a series of Ski-ing outfits and very soon you’re watching Gaby Logan crying during a deep breathing exercise..although as lots have pointed out, a 15 second cold shower is hardly SAS who dares wins.
Worth a listen
Greg Jenner - RHLSTP with Richard Herring
Before I get into Greg Jenner’s Ask a Historian - this chat between the historian and Richard Herring is a good listen: especially for the discussion at around 25mins in on ‘When was the first Monday?’ (quick answer: there’s no quick answer)
Excellent entertainment for those who love a bit of trivia…
Worth a read..
List of Cognitive Biases and Heuristics -
This is an awesome list from the Decision Lab. Read this and then set yourself up as a Behavioural Science guru.. OK - maybe read Thinking Fast and Slow; Nudge; The Undoing Project and Predictably Irrational first..
‘I don’t let my wife use it’ – great TV theme tune composers savage ‘skip intro’
Putting to one side the ethics of dictating how your partner should or shouldn’t watch TV, a small window into the torment that a much loved feature can cause..
How Barnes & Noble Went From Villain to Hero
To independent booksellers, the enormous chain was once a threat. Now it’s vital to their survival. Or: my enemy’s enemy…
Beanstalk cryptocurrency loses $182m of reserves in flash ‘attack’
The weekly cautionary cyrpto tale
Quartz ditches its paywall because of its 'growing international readership'
While the Guardian is said to be looking at making people pay for its app..
Amazon is quietly developing a 'new-to-world' AR product
I think you can probably put pretty much anything in the second half of that sentence. But, of course they are..
Why Amazon founder Jeff Bezos banned PowerPoint presentations
This is an old article - but the memo from it popped up again this week. At some point I will get round to the definitive discussion of Docs vs Decks.
www.managementtoday.co.uk • Share
Possibly my favourite Drama of the year so far - good to read this deep dive into it.
UK publishers take £6.7bn in sales as TikTok crazes fuel purchases
The social media platform was a surprise driver for new and older books as sales rose 5% for print and digital
My favourite outburst of the week
Not everyone is feeling the Web 3 love. In response to someone posting a link to : ‘How Web3 is redefinining storytelling for creators and fans through NFTs’.
A weekly round up of Product Management goodies - all very grounded in the real world. Plus: updates what I've been watching and listening to. Every Friday, from deepest Surrey.
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